Speed Handicapper® Version 6
Using The Handicap Tab
The Handicap Table Brings All Your Work Together
Important to Know:
No handicapping has been done yet, but after reviewing the conditions of the race, coming here can be a good place to start your work.
Notice there are a ton of Contenders (check marks under “C”) and that they have all raced recently, if one or more had not, you’d be looking at that.
Notice not one of the PPs is at today’s distance, which is 1 mi on the Turf. You will want to look at that when you handicap in detail.
The Cn column is Conditions. “iT” Inner Turf, “d” Dirt or Poly. These vary somewhat with different data suppliers.
The first column “C” are “Contenders” whose calculated probability based on the selected Carroll Speed Figures are equal to or greater than Random Odds, as described in the Overview page.
After noticing all these things and whatever else catches your eye, go back to the Connections Tab and start handicapping!
Selecting a Speed Line
There are lots of elaborate methods for selecting a Speed (or Pace) Line to represent a horse, but a very decent and pretty quick one is to decide for each horse if there is a reason NOT to accept the most recent.
The only horse of the top four horses with identical Carroll Figures of 959 that has a good reason to possibly not accept it is Shush Up, which ran its 959 at 7f.
Shush Up’s 959 is the fastest it has ever run to finish 4th at 7 furlongs on the Turf, and its only wins are at much slower speed, so I go to its only figure at the 1 mi distance (albeit on the dirt) to reduce its number. My point here is I no longer think it is a contender among the other nice NY horses in this race, so any lower number will do.
The other four top contenders all ran recently and either won or finished 0.5 lengths or less behind, so there is no reason not to accept them. With Shush UP’s figure selected, click the Handicap Tab again.
Review Your Handicapping Odds Lines and Consider Your Betting Opportunities
I swear when I began running Speed V6 for this tutorial and capturing screen images, I had no idea of the outcome of this race.
Here, Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, you have within the top four horses, not in order, but ready for some serious bet crafting, the Winner, Exacta, Trifecta…and… Superfecta!
(Belmont Park, 10/3/2014. Race 8)
Important to Know
Probability and Odds are calculated using a proprietary method devised by Charles Carroll based on the selected Carroll Speed Figures for the race.
Conservative Odds (COdds) directly reflect probability. Aggressive Odds (AOdds) weight 80% of the probability to the contenders, 20% to non-contenders.